None are more likely to play out effectively for Russia.
In a speech to the nation early final week, Mr. Putin stated that Wagner fighters who didn’t take part within the coup try have been free to signal a contract with the Russian navy underneath the command of the Ministry of Protection. (Those that did take part might be a part of Mr. Prigozhin in Belarusian exile.) However the mandate for Wagner mercenaries to signal a contract with the Russian Ministry of Protection — a coverage Protection Minister Sergei Shoigu tried to place in place in early June — was one of many major components contributing to Mr. Prigozhin’s mutiny try, and isn’t more likely to be a preferred alternative for his troops.
Even when Wagner fighters do resolve to affix Russian navy models en masse, it received’t be straightforward for Moscow to combine them. Wagner forces have already got a well-deserved fame for brutality, are alleged to have dedicated battle crimes and crimes in opposition to humanity in a number of theaters and have been credibly accused of torture, kidnapping and executing civilians.
An alternative choice can be for Mr. Putin to depart Wagner’s abroad operations as is, and set up a brand new chief to exchange Mr. Prigozhin. That will keep away from disrupting Moscow’s international coverage agenda and reassure its shopper states that Russia stays a dependable associate. Wagner’s African footprint is huge, with ongoing actions in Cameroon, Burkina Faso, Equatorial Guinea, South Africa, Zimbabwe and Kenya. When requested instantly after the failed rebellion what would occur to Wagner’s presence in Africa, Russia’s international minister, Sergei Lavrov, introduced that Russian “instructors” would proceed working in Mali and the Central African Republic. Russia has since dispatched officers to varied spots the place Wagner operates to reassure these governments, together with Syria and Mali, that there will likely be no disruption in Russian help.
However that, too, might get messy, relying on how deep the rift between Wagner and the Ministry of Protection runs. If Wagner’s midlevel commanders and foot troopers stay loyal to Mr. Prigozhin, putting in a brand new figurehead with the Kremlin’s imprimatur could not work. Mr. Prigozhin was revered by Wagner fighters, lots of whom could chafe on the prospect of latest management or a drastic change in organizational tradition.
Lastly, Russia might search to disband Wagner completely and disperse its fighters into current non-public armies. Patriot, a gaggle linked to Mr. Shoigu, is extensively seen as a major competitor to Wagner, with reported operations in Burundi, the Central African Republic, Gabon, Syria and Yemen. The E.N.O.T. Company is one other Russian non-public navy firm, based by Russian nationalist Igor Mangushev, with some expertise overseas, however is way much less influential and skilled than Wagner. Gazprom, the Russian power large, has additionally developed its personal non-public military, though it’s designed primarily to guard oil and fuel infrastructure in opposition to assaults.
